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Revisions Show Recession Was More Severe Than Estimated

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07/30/2010 10:41

The U.S. economy slid into its downturn somewhat faster and more severely than previously estimated, according to new information from the Commerce Department.

The department's Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday released its annual revisions to previously published data on the Gross Domestic Product figures for 2007 through 2009.

The revisions, though relatively minor, primarily reflect better and more complete data on the economy reported to the bureau since its last estimates.

According to Brent Moulton, associate director for national economic accounts, the data shows GDP growth slowed more than previously reported in the third quarter of 2007, while the uptick in the second quarter of 2008 was weaker than previously believed.

From that uptick, the data also show that the GDP slide into negative territory began slightly sooner than previously reported, and though the trough came a quarter earlier, the last quarter of 2008, the same was true of the path toward recovery.

"We're showing the decline coming a little earlier," Moulton said. "I will point out that none of the quarters changed sign, from plus to minus, so in terms of peaks and troughs of GDP that hasn't changed."

He added, "The biggest upward revision came in the first quarter of 2009, where previously that had been the biggest decline in GDP and with the revised data, now it's the fourth quarter of 2008."

The new data, however, continues to confirm the severity of the economic downturn, Moulton said.

"It actually now surpasses all of the other post-war [WWII] downturns in GDP," he said. "We don't have quarterly estimates for the period of the Great Depression … [but] the Great Depression was much bigger than this."

According to the revised figures, the relatively anemic overall GDP growth of 0.4 percent in 2008 was revised down to zero, driven by a drop in gross private domestic investment, which shrank by 1.53 percent rather than the previously reported 1.18 percent.

The worsening of GDPI was partly offset by somewhat stronger growth in exports than had been previously reported, with export growth in 2008 revised to 0.72 percent from 0.64 percent.

The GDP drop for 2009 also proved somewhat worse than expected, with the economy shrinking by 2.6 percent for the year. The previous figures had shown a 2.4 percent drop.

Moulton attributed that drop to even worse personal consumption rates than previously reported, with the revised figures showing a drop of 0.84 percent rather than 0.42 percent.

However, the revised figures also showed slight improvements in GDPI and exports, somewhat offsetting the personal spending drop.

"We had a fairly large downward revision to personal consumption" in 2009, Moulton said.

The new figures also reflect an overall downturn in corporate profits for all three years, with the biggest drop coming in at $97.6 billion in 2008, $50.9 billion in 2009 and $31.1 billion in 2007.

The personal savings rate for the country was revised up in all three years as well, from 1.7 percent to 2.1 percent in 2007, from 2.7 percent to 4.1 percent in 2008 and from 4.2 percent to 5.9 percent in 2009.

The U.S. economy slid into its downturn somewhat faster and more severely than previously estimated, according to new information from the Commerce Department. The department's Bureau of Economic Analysis Friday released its annual revisions to previously published data on the Gross Domestic Product figures for 2007 through 2009. (Market News Provided by RTTNews)

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